Bitcoin [BTC] miners have sold over 110,000 BTC in a week, raising concerns about whether this could stall the price rally that has seen BTC cross $90,000. The highest daily sell-off occurred on November 12th, with miners selling 25,367 BTC worth $2.2 billion. The increased selling pressure from miners has intensified this week, leading to doubts about BTC reaching the $100,000 psychological target. Historically, increased miner sell-offs and revenue have marked local and cycle tops, prompting other holders to sell as well.
The current cycle status of BTC is being closely monitored as it approaches $90,000 and eyes the $100,000 mark. From a miner’s perspective, a spike in miner fees above 30% of total revenue has typically been correlated with past BTC cycle tops, indicating an overheated market. In November, miner fees hovered around 10% of total revenue, suggesting that the market was not yet overheated. Another indicator, the Pi Cycle Top, also showed little room for a rally before the market became overheated, with the green line reading showing $120,000 as a potential cycle top.
Large players in the options market, such as QCP Capital, have also been expecting BTC to reach the $100,000-$120,000 range. A move above $120,000 could trigger the Pi Cycle Top and lead to profit booking across all cohorts of BTC holders, potentially resulting in a 30% move from the current $90,000 level. Altcoins like Solana and Binance Coin (BNB) are also being closely watched to see if they are breaking free from Bitcoin’s influence, which could impact the overall cryptocurrency market.
In conclusion, the intensified selling pressure from Bitcoin miners raises concerns about whether BTC’s price rally could be stalled, especially as it approaches the $100,000 mark. Key indicators such as miner fees and the Pi Cycle Top suggest that the market is not yet overheated, but a move above $120,000 could trigger profit booking among BTC holders. Large players in the options market are also anticipating BTC’s price to reach the $100,000-$120,000 range, potentially leading to further market volatility. Altcoins like Solana and BNB are also being monitored for any signs of breaking free from Bitcoin’s influence, which could impact the broader cryptocurrency market.
