Bitcoin has experienced an 11% rebound, reaching $83,500, despite the current economic turmoil and bond market volatility. Whales and long-term holders have played a crucial role in absorbing market pressure, acquiring 100k BTC since March. This comes as the U.S. market remains highly volatile, with the bond market crashing and Treasury yields seeing their biggest weekly jump since 2001. Trump’s trade war tactics seem to have backfired, leading to a 90-day pause.
The U.S. economy’s current state has a significant impact on Bitcoin. Typically, U.S. bonds and treasury yields do not move in tandem. The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, reaching over 4.5%, has raised concerns. Reports indicate that a substantial amount of U.S. debt will need refinancing by 2025. The recent bond market crash, influenced by foreign sell-offs, has pushed yields higher, affecting the government’s borrowing costs and the U.S. dollar’s image as a safe haven.
Despite the macroeconomic challenges, Bitcoin has defied market expectations, staging a strong reversal after a period of heavy selling pressure. Data from CryptoQuant shows that whales and long-term holders have been acquiring BTC since March. Long-term holders currently hold 13.60 million BTC, with an NUPL of 0.68, suggesting unrealized profits of 68%. However, caution is advised, as the broader macroeconomic environment and the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict could impact Bitcoin’s resilience.
Looking ahead, the current market environment remains fragile. While the 90-day tariff pause may provide temporary relief, geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties continue to pose risks. With the U.S. bond market in flux and Treasury yields on the rise, investors are closely monitoring the situation. Bitcoin’s recent resilience may not be a guarantee of a parabolic run, as the potential for market volatility remains high. As large holders sit on unrealized profits, the decision to exit could trigger a sell-off, bringing into question the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current rally.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $83,500 amidst economic turmoil and market volatility showcases its resilience. Whales and long-term holders have played a crucial role in absorbing market pressure, with significant BTC acquisitions since March. However, caution is advised, as the broader macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict and geopolitical tensions could impact Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks. While analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s potential, it is essential to consider the risks associated with market dynamics and potential sell-offs by large holders. As the market continues to evolve, a cautious approach is recommended to navigate the uncertainty and volatility ahead.
