Solana recently saw a bounce to $125, but concerns over whale exits and dense supply zones near $140 have raised the risk of a long squeeze. Large holders of Solana remain in the red despite the recent recovery, impacting overall market sentiment. On-chain data shows a major whale liquidated 274,188 SOL at an average price of $108, locking in $11 million in losses. With SOL now around $125, the whale is still underwater, reflecting continued distribution among smart money.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) highlights major supply clusters for SOL around $100, $120, and $140, with the $140 zone standing out with over 27.8 million SOL concentrated there. The risk of whale-driven sell-offs remains if SOL fails to reclaim the $140 level, potentially triggering a bullish rotation driven by FOMO and market greed. With 38 million SOL clustered between $117 and $120, this range could see profit-taking as the price breaks this ceiling, leading to continued price volatility until the $140 level is tested.
Solana’s 7.07% daily upswing positions it as the leading top-tier asset in terms of recovery velocity, with derivatives data confirming aggressive positioning. Open Interest (OI) jumped 13.89% to $5.23 billion, signaling a fresh wave of leveraged exposure. However, fragility is introduced with active whale distribution and Short-Term Holders still deep in the capitulation zone. The breach of a high-density supply zone ($117–$120) sets the stage for elevated liquidation risk, with a potential cascading long squeeze triggering sharp downside volatility if momentum is not sustained.
While the recent bounce in Solana has sparked optimism, it is seen as a liquidity-driven relief phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Downside risk remains on the table until Solana can reclaim and hold above the $140 supply zone with conviction. The market outlook for Solana remains uncertain, with potential for whale-driven sell-offs and increased price volatility until key supply zones are tested. Retail traders should remain cautious amid the fragile macro and on-chain backdrop, monitoring price action for signs of a trend reversal or continued downside risk.
