Bitcoin has proven to be a resilient asset during times of global turmoil, consistently delivering strong returns in the 60 days following major events since 2020. According to data shared by Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan, Bitcoin has outperformed both equities and gold across various high-volatility periods. In particular, Bitcoin posted an average 37% return over a two-month period following these events, compared to 3.5% for the S&P 500 and 6.2% for gold.
During the U.S.–Iran escalation in January 2020, Bitcoin rose by 20% in the 60 days following the event, while the S&P 500 fell by 7% and gold gained 6%. Similarly, after the COVID-19 outbreak was declared in March 2020, Bitcoin climbed 21% in the same timeframe, reversing an initial 25% drop. The S&P 500 and gold recorded gains of 2% and 3%, respectively.
Following the U.S. election challenges in November 2020, Bitcoin saw a massive surge of 131% in the 60 days after the event, compared to a 12% rise in the S&P 500 and a 1% decline in gold. Similarly, after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin returned 15% over 60 days, outperforming both gold and equities.
The March 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis also saw a significant move in Bitcoin, with a 32% gain over 60 days. Gold rose by 11% and the S&P 500 climbed by 4%. In contrast, Bitcoin’s response to Japan’s Yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024 was more muted, with a 3% gain in 60 days. Gold gained 9% and the S&P 500 added 7%.
Overall, data shows that Bitcoin has consistently recovered faster and outperformed other assets across major market disruptions, particularly within a two-month timeframe. However, there have been instances where Bitcoin has underperformed gold, such as during the Yen carry trade unwinding in 2024. Despite this, Bitcoin has proven to be a valuable asset for investors looking to navigate uncertain market conditions.
