Bitcoin options open interest has seen a significant increase, expanding from $30.33 billion to $37.92 billion in just a few days. This 25% jump surpassed Bitcoin’s 5.5% rise in the same period, highlighting a rush by traders to add convex positions rather than thickening linear futures books. This shift is a precursor to sharp spot moves once dealers begin adjusting delta hedges.
Deribit’s strike sheet reveals a concentration of call contracts at key levels, such as $100,000, $110,000, and $95,000. On the downside, puts are clustered at $80,000, $75,000, and $70,000. Despite Bitcoin not revisiting its March high near $97,000, the call-to-put ratio leans towards upside exposure, with more calls than puts in the options book.
Most of these strikes are out-of-the-money, carrying sizeable positive gamma that intensifies as the spot price climbs. Gamma measures how quickly an option’s sensitivity to underlying price changes, with high positive gamma accelerating hedge requirements as spot nears the strike. This leads to dealers buying when the price rises and selling when it falls, contributing to intraday flows.
The options-to-futures open-interest ratio indicates a structural change, as the metric has increased to its highest level this quarter, nearing 60%. A higher options exposure corresponds to higher implied volatility and more pronounced dealer hedging feedback loops, potentially magnifying spot swings in both directions.
The current setup suggests that a move through $95,000 could push call open interest into the money, driving Bitcoin towards the $100,000 level. Downside protection is thin, indicating potential falls towards $75,000. The rapid expansion of notional exposure implies traders are paying for leverage rather than deploying fresh capital outright, a stance that could unwind suddenly if spot stalls.
The combination of elevated call interest, heavy dealer gamma, and a robust futures base suggests the possibility of a directional energy burst pushing Bitcoin closer to $100,000. A close above $94,000 could trigger an upside move, while a drift below $88,000 could smooth declines but also drain speculative momentum. Overall, the market is running a larger, more top-heavy options book against a futures base that has not grown in tandem, signaling potential for significant price movements.
