Bitcoin has recently found support at the $74K level, with over 50,000 BTC concentrated in this range, largely held by long-term investors who have been inactive since early March. This marks the first major supply cluster below $80K, with additional cost basis levels at $71.6K and $69.9K, providing a potential floor for the cryptocurrency in the near term.
Cost basis clusters serve as a signal for a soft floor at $69K, representing the average price at which coins were last moved. For short-term holders, these clusters indicate areas of vulnerability or conviction. The current STH realized price is at $89K, but the key zone is at $69K, which historically has acted as a soft bottom during market corrections.
Lessons from past bull markets show that the $69K level has consistently been a key turning point during corrections. Price movements tend to stabilize near the STH realized price -1σ band, currently at $69K, before regaining upward momentum. The market structure currently reflects similar trends, with prices retracing towards dense cost basis zones held by resilient investors, reducing panic-driven selling.
There are indications that a soft floor is forming between $70K-$74K, with Bitcoin’s recent dip to $77K being met with a swift rebound. This suggests that the $74K-$70K zone could act as a soft floor, consistent with consolidation phases seen in prior cycles. Despite the daily RSI hovering near oversold territory and MACD flashing bearish momentum, strong historical buyer interest below $80K lends credence to $74K holding as support.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s support levels and cost basis clusters indicate a potential floor at $74K, with additional support at $71.6K and $69.9K. The $69K level has historically been a key turning point during corrections, and the market structure currently reflects similar trends. The $70K-$74K zone may act as a soft floor for Bitcoin, with strong historical buyer interest below $80K supporting the $74K level as a potential support area. A bounce above $74K could mark a local bottom and reignite bullish sentiment in the near term.
