The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, recently made a bold assertion that the Bitcoin bull market is officially over, with prices currently hovering around $82,000. Ju’s analysis is based on key technical indicators, particularly the relationship between Realized Cap, Market Cap, and selling pressure.
Ju’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is now in bear market territory, much to the dismay of investors. He points to the interplay between Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and market capitalization as key factors contributing to his conclusion. Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s value based on the price at which each BTC held in wallets was transferred, while market cap measures value by multiplying the circulating supply of BTC with current prices.
The CEO notes that market capitalization alone is not the best indicator to track the Bitcoin bull market. During periods of low selling pressure, even small Bitcoin purchases can push market capitalization to new highs. However, when sell pressure is high, substantial purchases may not have the same effect on Bitcoin price. Ju points to a recent large purchase of 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion that did not trigger a price rally as an example.
Onchain data reveals that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap is increasing while market capitalization is declining, indicating bearish sentiments. Despite positive fundamentals and significant acquisitions, on-chain indicators are painting a bleak picture for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a bearish pennant pattern, signaling the possibility of further price declines.
Crypto Sat predicts a potential drop to $80,000 for Bitcoin, with prices currently at $82,950. Ju has even bleaker predictions, suggesting that a near-term rally for BTC is unlikely and it could take up to six months for the asset to recover from the bear market. Despite these negative sentiments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has praised Bitcoin as a store of value, likening it to gold.
In conclusion, Ju’s analysis highlights the challenges facing Bitcoin as it navigates a bearish market environment. With sell pressure persisting and on-chain indicators flashing bearish signals, the path to recovery for Bitcoin may be a long and arduous one. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions in the current market conditions.
