Online bettors on the blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe Biden will withdraw from the upcoming US elections after his spotty performance during the presidential debate against Donald Trump. Punters rate Biden’s chances of dropping out of the races at 38 cents against 63 cents, with over $7 million worth of bets placed. Forecasting startup Manifold also shows a similar sentiment, with the odds of Biden being the Democratic candidate for the election plummeting to 68% from 94% within the past day.
Jim Bianco from Bianco Research noted the exceptionally high volume of bets placed, stating that prediction markets are real-time indicators of public sentiment. He commented that Biden’s odds fell much more than Trump’s odds rose, indicating that Biden may be in a difficult position. However, he also mentioned that if Biden is replaced with a more acceptable candidate, Trump may not necessarily win the election either.
The reaction to Biden’s performance at the debate has led to speculation about his health and cognitive ability, with some experts noting that replacing him just months before the election would be unprecedented and previously considered unthinkable. Demetri Sevastopulo of the Financial Times reported that a wide cross-section of House Democrats were texting each other during the debate, suggesting that Biden must drop out of the race in order to excite voters.
Bettors on Polymarket are speculating on potential candidates to replace Biden, with the “Democratic Nominee 2024” market attracting nearly $62 million in bets. While Biden still leads in the market, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds have risen to 15%, reflecting growing support. Michelle Obama, former US First Lady, has a 9% chance of being a contender, and Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris is also considered a strong possibility, with 8% odds.
In conclusion, the current betting trends on prediction markets suggest that there is growing speculation about Joe Biden potentially dropping out of the US elections following his debate performance against Donald Trump. While this scenario would have been considered unlikely just a few months ago, the reaction to Biden’s performance has raised questions about his ability to continue in the race. Bettors are now considering potential replacement candidates, with Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, and Kamala Harris emerging as front-runners in the event that Biden does withdraw.
