Futures traders are currently showing strong bullish conviction in Dogecoin (DOGE), with long positions outweighing shorts on Binance Futures. Data from Ali Martinez indicates that as of April 5th, long accounts peaked at 73.33% with a Long/Short Ratio of 2.75. This sentiment has been consistent, with earlier data showing an even stronger sentiment towards long positions, such as on April 3rd when long positions surged to 80.23%.
However, despite the overwhelming confidence in DOGE futures trading, there is no strong correlation between Daily Active Addresses (DAA) spikes and price gains. This lack of correlation suggests that speculative activity may be driving the recent surge in long positions on Binance Futures. The data from Binance Futures’ Long/Short Ratio also reveals a shift in sentiment over the past week, with short positions increasing and long interest decreasing.
The impact of this sentiment shift is evident in DOGE futures liquidations, with the Long/Short Ratio reaching its lowest reading of the week at 0.899. Spot price and liquidation figures also indicate a decline in conviction in the spot market, with Dogecoin’s price dropping nearly 32% between February and April. Furthermore, whale activity has significantly decreased, with a steep fall in large trades suggesting that institutions or high-net-worth participants may be offloading or avoiding DOGE amid receding prices.
On-chain data also suggests that Dogecoin’s network health is deteriorating, as Daily Active Addresses have seen a 22% drop from their peak on March 11th to April 5th. Despite strong Daily Active Addresses not always aligning with price increases, futures traders continue to show a preference for long positions. However, other indicators such as decreasing whale transactions, declining spot volumes, and weakening network activity paint a different picture, highlighting a gap between short-term speculative excitement and broader market hesitation.
Overall, the data indicates a market in conflict, with brief euphoria in futures trading contrasting sharply with a longer-term cautious outlook. While bullish sentiment has temporarily boosted optimism among DOGE traders, the advantage remains fragile due to waning interest, lower participation from key stakeholders, and ongoing price declines. The divergence between futures trading sentiment and broader market indicators suggests that the current bullish conviction in DOGE may be driven more by speculation than fundamental factors.
