The recent bullish sentiment behind Bitcoin has seen the cryptocurrency surge by 13.2% over the past six days, with the price now back above the key short-term level at $81k. This level had previously acted as strong support in mid-March but had flipped to resistance in early April. Despite the recent gains, market analyst Peter Brandt believes that the current move is more corrective than impulsive, suggesting that a deeper price drop may be on the horizon. He has highlighted a target range of $72k-$74k as a potential “max pain accumulation target.”
The taker buy/sell volume data reveals that the long/short ratio is currently at 1.04, indicating that 51% of the taker volume is long. This suggests some short-term bullish sentiment among Bitcoin traders. However, the presence of sell walls at $86k, $88k, and $91k on the whale orders chart may pose some resistance to further price increases in the near term. Traders holding long positions can use these levels as profit-taking opportunities.
For investors with a longer-term perspective, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr’s analysis of the Bitcoin Realized Value to Transaction Volume ratio (RVT) may hold more significance. The RVT ratio is seen as a more reliable indicator than the Network Value to Transaction Volume (NVT) ratio, as it uses realized cap instead of market cap in its calculations. The RVT’s 30-day moving average currently stands at 20.5, with a move beyond 22 signaling a potential accumulation phase. This suggests that a significant amount of capital on the Bitcoin network is not actively participating in daily transactions, indicating a period of accumulation.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s realized pricing bands have also indicated a potential bounce towards $105k or higher. The recent bounce from the 1.7RP level at $74.6k suggests a potential price increase, with the realized price currently at $43.9k. The last time the 1.7RP level was tested was in September, followed by a bounce beyond the 2.4RP level in the subsequent months. Whether Bitcoin will retest $74k before such a bounce or continue its corrective phase is uncertain at this point. However, the potential for an accumulation phase could have a positive impact on price trends in the future.
Overall, Bitcoin’s short-term bullish sentiment and the possibility of a move towards $87k are encouraging for traders. However, the presence of significant sell walls at key levels may present hurdles to further price increases. For long-term investors, the potential for a Bitcoin accumulation phase based on the RVT ratio and realized pricing bands suggests positive price trends ahead. As the market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and influence Bitcoin’s price movements in the coming weeks.
