Standard Chartered, a global bank, has released a report predicting that stablecoin supply could reach $2 trillion by 2028. This growth is expected to drive $1.6 trillion in new demand for US Treasury bills if upcoming US legislation, known as the GENIUS Act, passes as expected. The GENIUS Act aims to formalize the legal framework for stablecoins, requiring them to be fully reserved with a preference for highly liquid US assets like T-bills. The report anticipates that this regulatory framework will lead to consistent and significant purchases of government debt as stablecoin supply expands.
The head of digital assets research at StanChart, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggests that the projected level of demand for T-bills from stablecoin issuers could absorb all new T-bill issuance planned during Trump’s second term. The bank expects stablecoin demand to be structurally tied to fiscal markets, with issuers needing to match circulating token supply with liquid reserves. The $1.6 trillion in projected T-bill demand only accounts for newly issued stablecoins under these terms, not legacy tokens or digital assets more broadly.
Standard Chartered’s report also suggests that the rise of regulated, dollar-backed stablecoins could boost global demand for the US dollar, particularly in countries facing currency instability or capital restrictions. By providing access to tokenized dollars through blockchain technology, these stablecoins could deepen the dollar’s international role without relying on traditional banking infrastructure. The bank believes that this new form of dollar export could serve as a “medium-term offset against the current threat to USD hegemony.”
With the GENIUS Act likely to align stablecoins more closely with the US financial system, their influence may expand from being a crypto-native tool to becoming a core component of global dollar liquidity and fiscal support. Kendrick highlights the potential for stablecoins to positively impact dollar hegemony, especially in the face of rising trade barriers and monetary fragmentation. As stablecoin supply grows in the coming years, the demand for US Treasury bills is expected to increase significantly, providing support for both the stablecoin ecosystem and the US dollar’s international standing.
In conclusion, Standard Chartered’s report predicts a significant surge in stablecoin supply driven by upcoming US legislation and anticipates a corresponding increase in demand for US Treasury bills. The regulatory framework outlined in the GENIUS Act aims to formalize the stablecoin market, requiring issuers to hold highly liquid US assets like T-bills. This alignment with the US financial system could enhance the global demand for the US dollar and solidify its role in international trade and finance. As stablecoins evolve into a key component of global dollar liquidity, their impact on the financial landscape is expected to grow substantially in the coming years.
