Standard Chartered’s global head of crypto research, Geoffrey Kendrick, believes that Bitcoin has not yet taken into consideration the growing signs of systemic risk despite its recent performance as a hedge. In a client note on April 22, Kendrick warned that political pressure on the US Federal Reserve could lead to bond market stress that may spill into the crypto markets. He pointed out that the US 10-year term premium hitting its highest level in 12 years reflects concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Kendrick believes that Bitcoin will soon begin to reflect this shift.
Kendrick categorizes Bitcoin as a hedge against both private-sector collapses and public-sector credibility shocks. He emphasized that during times of macro stress events, Bitcoin’s true function as a crisis hedge emerges. Despite often trading as a risk asset in normal conditions, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s value is truly seen during times of market turmoil. He highlighted the recent spike in the term premium as an indicator of long-term inflation and rate risk, suggesting that this could lead to a resurgence in Bitcoin’s hedge narrative.
Kendrick also noted a divergence between the surge in the term premium and Bitcoin’s price which has stalled below $100,000. He explained that this lag could be attributed to temporary investor focus on trade-related fears such as tech-sector tariffs, which have dampened Bitcoin’s reaction. However, he believes that once the narrative shifts back to central bank credibility, Bitcoin will return to its role as a hedge against systemic risks. Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for Bitcoin, predicting $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
Kendrick attributes this projected rise in Bitcoin’s price to macroeconomic pressure, improving structural access through spot ETFs, and a maturing derivatives market. He has previously modeled Bitcoin’s growing share in optimized gold-BTC portfolios as volatility decreases, supporting higher BTC prices over time. Kendrick believes that continued institutional access under the current US administration could be the catalyst for the next all-time high in Bitcoin. Overall, Kendrick remains bullish on Bitcoin’s future as a hedge against systemic risks and maintains a positive long-term outlook for its price potential.
