Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) supply is at a critical junction, facing increasing pressure as macro uncertainty fuels market volatility. The recent announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a 90-day pause on tariffs led to an 8.27% surge in Bitcoin, the longest green candlestick in nearly a month. Despite this, the market is still facing challenges as short-term holders are feeling the pressure with realized prices well above current levels. If Bitcoin breaks below $72k, there is a risk of capitulation as holders may be forced to sell to avoid further losses.
The STH supply signals a potential risk of capitulation, as on-chain data from Glassnode indicates a net distribution of holdings with approximately 360k BTC in an unrealized loss state. The bulk of these holdings were accumulated around $93k, meaning that short-term holders are facing the risk of forced liquidations if Bitcoin falls below this key level. The STH realized price is at $131k and $72k, defining critical liquidity zones. A breach of the lower band at $72k could lead to cascading sell pressure and further drawdowns for holders.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below the crucial $85k resistance level, with repeated rejections indicating a potential liquidity zone that, if breached, could trigger short liquidations. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has dropped below its March baseline, signaling a sustained deleveraging phase among futures traders who are becoming more risk-averse. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has shown resilience, with only a modest $90 billion drawdown in market cap following recent market turbulence.
However, the current macro uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, could push short-term holders to exit their positions. Many of these holders bought in around $93k, and if the price doesn’t recover soon, they may choose to sell to avoid further losses. With fear still prevalent in the market and speculative demand low, a dip to $72k remains a real possibility before Bitcoin can make a sustained breakout. Overall, the STH supply of Bitcoin is under pressure, with potential risks of capitulation if key levels are breached.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply is facing mounting pressure as macro uncertainty continues to fuel market volatility. The recent surge in Bitcoin following Trump’s announcement on tariffs was short-lived, with the market still facing challenges. Short-term holders are at a critical juncture, with their realized prices above current levels and a risk of capitulation if Bitcoin breaks below $72k. The STH supply signals potential risks of forced liquidations and further drawdowns, with key liquidity zones at $131k and $72k defining critical levels. While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of recent turbulence, macro uncertainty could push short-term holders to exit, leading to further downward pressure on the price. Ultimately, the STH supply of Bitcoin remains under pressure, with the possibility of a dip to $72k before any sustained breakout can occur.
